• IT Supply Chain Insights - December 2016

Welcome to this monthly IT Supply Chain Insights. This monthly alert will keep you up to date with market trends and IT channel news giving you the knowledge you need to save time and money buying IT.

 

Executive Summary

 

36,685

The largest number of price increases happened on November 1, with 36,685 rises in a single day.

Jump to Monthly Stats
  • Q3 smartphone sales finish users enjoy growth
  • Notebook shipments carry on falling YoY through 2017
  • DRAM prices, shipments and revenue up over the board

This month the US president also blocked a Chinese takeover of German semiconductor manufacturer, display shipments are down but revenue keeps growing, and the European printer market sees mixed results. Chinese smartphones boost the third quarter of sales as Samsung and Apple record losses, PC shipments keep falling but by decreasing margins, average DRAM prices and revenue continue to increase along with SSD's adoption increasing at a rapid rate.

There was nothing but bad news for the euro this month, experiencing its poorest monthly performance in contrast to the GBP in seven years and falling hard in contrast to the USD.

The euro began weak in contrast to the GBP but recovered well and enjoyed a smooth ride finishing the month off high, while against USD it started strong but fell hard mid-month, only recovering enough to finish the month where it started.

 

Exchange Rate

 

An uncertain political situation in the Eurozone has gone against the single currency, and rumblings from the European Central Bank about further quantitative easing have resulted in an anxious market.


British Pound (GBP) per 1 Euro (EUR)

 

The month started bright for the euro against the GBP, but that’s where it ended. Starting at 0.8991 and rising to 0.9029 on 2nd November, the euro then fell, first to 0.8893 on 4th November where it sat until 9th November, dipping to 0.8602 by 14th November and bottoming out at 0.8478 on 24th November. A small recovery saw the euro end the month at 0.8516.

US Dollar (USD) per 1 Euro (EUR)

 

 

It was a similar story when it came to USD. The euro started at 1.1002, rose to 1.1135 by the 6th November and then fell, eventually reaching 1.0551 by 23rd November. There was a slight recovery to end the month at 1.0627.

Euro (EUR) per 1 British Pound (GBP)

 

US Dollar (USD) per 1 British Pound (GBP)

 

 

Price Changes

 

Price Changes and News throughout November, 2016

Phones and Tablets

Worldwide smartphone sales to end users grew 5.4% YoY in Q3 achieving 373m units. Chinese vendors Huawei, Oppo and BBK were the only companies to boost sales for the quarter, said Gartner, adding that they accounted for 21% of smartphones sales.

Samsung suffered its biggest ever smartphone sales decline in Q3 as a result of its disaster with exploding Galaxy Note 7 devices, dropping 14.2% YoY. Regardless of this, Samsung still maintained top spot with 71.7m units and 19.2% market share, followed closely by Apple with 43m units (down from 46m) and 11.5% market share, and the three Chinese vendors.

Android maintained its OS dominance with 3.1% YoY growth in market share to account for 87.8% of all smartphone units sold. IDC forecasts the worldwide used and refurbished smartphone market will rapidly expand on the back of trade-in and buy-back programs, with shipments set to develop at a CAGR of 22.3% from 81.3m units in 2015 to 222.6m units by 2020.

In accordance with IDC, tablet shipments to the Western Europe market fell 5.7% YoY in Q3 to 8.2m units. Apple and Samsung led the market despite both posting shipment losses, while Lenovo, Acer and Amazon each enjoyed growth in third, fourth and fifth places respectively. Worldwide tablet shipments will have fallen by 8.3% in 2016 to 154.5m units, suggested TrendForce. It'll decline at a shallower 5.3% YoY in 2017 to 146.5m units, the firm predicted.

Traditional PCs

Worldwide notebook shipments will fall 4% YoY in 2016 to 157.9m units and another 4.5% YoY in 2017, predicts Trendforce. This year's losses are due to the component market's rising prices and supply shortages, while 2017's drop will undoubtedly be a result of LCD panel market's structural supply shortage.

HP will own the top spot in both 2016 and 2017 with 22.2% and 22.6% market share, respectively, while Lenovo will sit in second with 21.5% and 21.2% and Dell in third with 15.1% and 14.6%.

Meanwhile, the 2016 global PC shipments will fall 6.4% YoY to 258.2m units, and are set to fall another 2.1% YoY in 2017, predicts IDC. Of the 2016 shipments, desktops will total 103.5m units and notebooks 154.7m units. PC shipments will fall to 250m units altogether by 2020. Desktops will drop to 93.1m units while notebooks will increase to 156.9m units, it said.

Premium Ultramobiles/Wearables

Western European detachable/hybrid tablet shipments enjoyed a 48.4% YoY shipment during Q3, said IDC. They accounted for 21.9% of the tablet market, up from 13.8% in Q315.

Processors, MEMs, Semiconductors

GFollowing an announcement by Apple that it will be cutting production orders for the iPhone 7, stock prices tumbled for major chip makers Broadcom (-4.5%), Cirrus Logic (-10.3%) and Qualcomm (-5.8%).

Memory

Based on several TrendForce reports, PC DRAM contract prices enjoyed 20% growth between September ($14.50) and October ($17.50) alongside spot prices up 17% for DDR3 4Gb and 24% for DDR4 4Gb on the month. NAND Flash also rose 19.6% sequentially in the third quarter, mobile DRAM revenue enjoyed 16.8% growth sequentially in Q3 to $4.59b, while PC DRAM is set to see 15% quarterly growth in Q1 2017.

Storage

SSDs will experience their largest sequential price increase for 2016 in Q4 and enjoy further growth through Q1 2017. Average SSD contract prices will increase 6-10% during Q4 with growth coming on the back of a rapid upsurge in SSD sales to the notebook market, set to achieve over 30%, predicts IDC.

 

Monthly Stats

 

Displays

In accordance with TrendForce, worldwide shipments of large-size LCD panels fell 2.4% on the month in October. Witsview (TrendForce) also predicts worldwide notebook and tablet panel shipments of large size LCD (7inch+) panels will fall 2.4% YoY to 725m units in 2017, while large monitors and TV sets will relish in a 3.8% YoY growth.

Meanwhile, flat panel display revenue will relish in a 9.3% YoY growth in 2017 to $110b, ending a two-year revenue decline streak, suggests IHS. Unit demand will not increase, but panel prices will rebound and a rise in premium display products will assist the drive of growth. In another report IHS has forecast lower shipments by LCD panel makers in 2017, set to be down 1.2% YoY to 258.4m units.

Printer

Western European printer and multifunction shipments fell 1.5% YoY in Q3 to 5.3m units whilst the laser market enjoyed 1.9% YoY growth. Combined, revenues were increasing, with the printer market relishing in a 3% YoY growth. In the United Kingdom, however, units shipped performed poorly, falling 5.3% YoY, IDC reported.

Worldwide shipments of 3D printers that produce metal parts relished in a 17% YoY growth for the first half of 2016 Context reported, noting the second half of 2016 will undoubtedly be slower with only a 12% shipment increase YoY.

Monthly Statistics

New services started high at 36 but fell immediately, hitting as little as 2 by 7th November. After climbing to the monthly high of 46 on 8th November, new products fell again, reaching 3 on 10th November. A recovery to 17 24 hours later resulted in a rise to 45 on 16th November. The month ended at 25.
HP ruled price increases by manufacturer as Cisco did for price reductions.

Daily total price increases started high (36,685) but ended low, with a series of dramatic rises and falls in-between. Dropping to 4,264 by 3rd November, rising to 10,939 on 4th-6th November, dropping to 3,435 on 8th November, sky rocketing to 23,332 on 10th November before hitting a low of 2,998 on 11th -13th November. Less dramatic movements saw out the month, ending at 5,300.

Daily price decreases started at 9,680, rose to 13,415 on 2nd November and again to 17,758 on 4th -6th November. It had been reasonably stable until it jumped to its monthly peak 27,123 on 14th November. Price decreases to below 10,000 on 16th November were followed closely by three days of recovery. This continued for the rest of the month, until it ended down at 7,876.

Stock up spent most the month between 2,400-3,400, with some notable exceptions. It leaped from 2,870 on 6th November to 29,043 on 7th November, fell to 934 on 8th November, hit the month high 36625 on 9th November, falling back to 20,841 on 11th – 13th November and to 2,453 by 15th November. The rest of the month was mostly low and stable, before a sharp increase to 30,511 on 30th November.

Stock decreases started at 9,765, increased to 26,819 by 4th- 6th November, fell to 699 on 7th November, hit the month high 43,168 on 8th November and then dropped again, sitting around 900 for most the month but ending the month at 18,427 on the final day of the month.

New Products November 2016

 

Prices and Stock Movements November 2016

 

 



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